About: the world this week, 1 December to 7 December 2024: Yet another war in the Middle East; South Korea messes-up martial law; Japan’s grisly problem; and Cyclone Fengal strikes.

Everywhere

Does the end of the year make people go crazy-trying to quickly finish unfinished business’ of the year(s)? As if the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon (now under a ‘diaphanous’ cease-fire with Hezbollah) and Turkey’s airstrikes against the Kurd militant targets in Syria and Iraq are not enough, Syria has joined the list, but of countries such as Sudan, Myanmar, which are at war with themselves. Then there is a severe unrest in Bangladesh with the hate-war against Hindus on a steady boil and now suddenly South Korea, feeling left-out, almost strayed-in but quickly recovered. Even as the Earth rotates tilting mores on its axis (under pressure?) the World moves in circles. And what good does war do? Swallow fire, bite bullets? Oh, tell me!

(For a change, Ukraine and Israel are off the Table in World Inthavaaaram)

Assad’s Syria

Syria’s civil war is back with a loud bang. It is in the spotlight after a new rebel coalition launched a surprise attack, sweeping into the country’s second largest city, Aleppo, which was once Syria’s largest city by population and its economic capital. It is one of the oldest inhabited cities in the world. This is the first time forces opposed to the Government have seized territory in Aleppo since 2016, shattering the stalemate of a war that never formally ended. The renewed conflict, which has killed more than 300,000 people and sent nearly 6 million refugees out of the country, also has wide ramifications across the region and beyond, especially in the background of ongoing wars in the region.

Let’s go back to when it all stared.

Once upon a time, at the height of the Arab Spring in 2011, pro-democracy demonstrators took to the streets in Syria calling for the ouster of its authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad. The protesters were met with deadly force and the movement brutally crushed. However, an armed opposition began to form made up of small organic militias, various armed rebel groups such as the ‘Free Syrian Army’ and some defectors from the Syrian military. This marked the beginning of the Syrian Insurgency, which by mid 2012 escalated to a full-blown civil war. The opposition forces- the insurgency- were supported in various ways by neighbouring Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, as well as, of course, the United States.

But as the anti-government forces grew, Syria’s allies Iran and Russia scaled-up their support for Syria. On the ground, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as well as its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah helped fight the armed rebel groups. In the skies, the Syrian Air Force was bolstered by Russian warplanes. To add to the potboiler extremist Islamists including Al Qaeda and ISIS were swayed, taking up a common cause with the moderate Syrian opposition who did not welcome a jihadist involvement.

By 2014 the extremists dominated and ISIS began sweeping across the country. Fearing Syria would become a permanent terror hotbed, an international coalition led by the US stepped in with a focus on eliminating the group but without confronting the Syrian regime.The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-a US partner made up of Kurdish fighters -fought against ISIS, effectively ending the group’s territorial existence. The SDF was formed from a group known as the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG), which is considered a terrorist organization by neighbouring Turkey.

In 2016, Syria’s civil war shifted in President Bashar Al-Assad’s favour after a Russian blitzkrieg on Aleppo helped him regain control over the city.

In 2020, Russia and Turkey agreed on a ceasefire in the last remaining opposition-held province, Idlib, agreeing to establish a security corridor with joint patrols.

There have been no major flare-ups since then, but Syria’s government never regained all of its territory. And as recent events in Aleppo reveal, armed resistance never fizzled away.

Now, coming to the present.

In just over 72-hours last week, in a surprise attack, a coalition of Syrian armed rebel groups operating under the banner of ‘Deterrence of Aggression’ captured Aleppo, dealing a significant blow to President Assad and causing a major escalation to a largely dormant war. By Tuesday, Syrian rebels reached the northern countryside of Hama.

The rebel coalition consists of well-established armed Islamist factions who, despite differences, are united in fighting Assad, ISIS, and Iran-backed militias. The offensive began on Wednesday after rebels formed a new coalition called the ‘Military Operations Command’. They quickly swept through villages outside Aleppo and residents have now said they control much of the city, meeting little resistance on the way. In response to the rebel advance, the Russian and Syrian air forces launched an aerial offensive in Aleppo and Idlib provinces.

Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and has ploughed manpower and resources into the war. Russia is Assad’s main partner in the sky. Meanwhile, Iran has suffered a series of attacks from Israel, in particular landing heavy blows on Hezbollah. This time, Assad’s allies are sweating it out in continuing to help him.

Aleppo was also the main rebel stronghold until Assad took it over in 2016. With the rebels regaining a foothold again, they are no longer cornered in Idlib, which could potentially trigger a domino effect.

The new grouping is made up of a broad spectrum of opposition forces, from Islamist factions to moderates. Leading them is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria that used to go by the name Al-Nusra Front. The group headed by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, officially cut ties with Al Qaeda and has been the de facto ruler in Idlib. It is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and the United Nations. They have been joined by groups backed by Turkey and others previously supported by the US. Complicating the situation is that some of the rebel groups are also fighting the SDF. The Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army, which is part of the rebel coalition that took control of most of Aleppo city, said it had seized control of the city of Tal Rifaat and the towns of Ain Daqna and Sheikh Issa in the northern part of the Aleppo governorate. It also claimed to have captured the villages of Shaaleh and Nairabiyyeh in Aleppo’s northern countryside. Those territories were previously held not by the government of Bashar al-Assad but by the SDF.

A quagmire. The head spins, right? So many people fighting for control. Wonder, what do they want. An Islamic State? Al Qaeda, ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah, now HTS?

South Korea: Declare and UnDeclare

This week, in an unbelievable stunning act, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol declared an Emergency Martial Law across the country in a Television Address. He accused the opposition of controlling the parliament and sympathising with North Korea. The shock decision comes in the aftermath of his People Power Party and the opposition Democratic Party disagreeing over a budget bill. The move plunged South Korea into political chaos.

Equally surprising, the country’s parliament voted to defy the move.

According to South Korea’s Constitution, the President can declare martial law to cope with a military threat or to maintain public safety and order by mobilising military forces. The decision must be reviewed by the cabinet and the National Assembly must also be notified about the decision. The law also dictates that if South Korea’s parliament requests the lifting of martial law through a majority vote – as has happened – then the President must comply. Since South Korea’s establishment as a republic in 1948, there have been more than a dozen instances of martial law declaration.

Special forces of the army stormed the parliament building, while soldiers surrounded part of the parliament and clashed with citizens who rushed to oppose martial law. Later when the forces tried entering Parliament, Lawmakers barricaded themselves inside, stone-walling doors with desks, sofas and fire extinguishers. There was no further escalation, with the heavily-geared battle-ready Forces showing discretion.

South Koreans were ‘dumbfounded’ when they first heard the news that martial law had been declared – and some thought it was a ‘hoax’.

President Yoon Suk Yeol made a wild gamble in a bid to dig himself out of a political impasse – but will now likely face calls for his removal from power. He has made his position much more difficult, if not impossible.

Yoon Suk Yeol has been in power since 2022, after narrowly winning the election by just 0.7 % points. He has struggled to get his agendas through as South Korea’s parliament is controlled by the opposition. Unable to pass his own laws, he has instead been vetoing any bills the opposition hoped to pass.

The next day on Wednesday, better sense prevailed, and Martial Law was aborted with the President announcing he will lift martial law in accordance with the vote. Soon after, his Cabinet approved the end of the decree.

Now the pressure is on the President to step down. After a whirlwind night of political upheaval in South Korea, the president’s future is in jeopardy as calls grow for impeachment following the thwarted attempt to impose martial law.

This is certainly one of the greatest political errors a President can make. And at the end of the day, ‘democracy worked’; it prevailed in restoring the system.

By the end of the week, probably to save himself, the President ‘gunned-down’ the Defence Minister – he was sacked.

Japan’s Bears Problem

Japan is grappling with an-unable to bear-growing Bear problem complemented by a dwindling and ageing band of Bear Hunters. A record 219 people were attacked by Bears, 6 of them fatal, in the twelve months through March 2024, while more than 9,000 Bears were trapped and culled over that period.

Japan is home to two species of Bears: the Japanese Black Bear and the Hokkaido Brown Bear. Most of the Black Bears live on the main island of Honshu, with a small number in Shikoku. The Black Bear is slightly smaller than its kind in China. The Brown Bear is found in the northern island of Hokkaido and is the biggest land animal in Japan. And is among the largest types of Brown Bear in the world.

Both species of Bears have been cleverly expanding their habitats. The number of Brown Bears in Hokkaido, more than doubled to about 11,700 in the three decades through 2020, though other estimates put their numbers at roughly 44,000 – a threefold increase since 2012!

Over recent decades, restrictions on hunting practices and greater emphasis on conservation contributed to a surge in the Bear population. With Japan’s rural areas experiencing rapid demographic decline, Bears are venturing closer, than before, in to towns and villages, and abandoned farmland, to occupy precious space.

Although some hunters stalk Bears as a hobby, many are not thrilled about culling trapped Bears for local governments. And they also risk clashing with authorities. Bear Hunters have also become a ‘vanishing species’, with people moving on to more ‘lucrative habitats’! In response to increased Bear attacks, this year Japan proposed relaxing rules around gun use to make it easier for hunters to shoot Bears in urban areas.

Experts say depopulation and a decline in the amount of managed farmland, in recent decades, may have emboldened Bears to approach towns for food. A clearer demarcation between habitats would help humans and Bears coexist. Bears are also raising cubs closer to human settlements, causing young Bears not to fear people as much as before. Climate change-driven shifts in the ripening and flowering of fruits, nuts and leaves may drive Bears to raid crops when their usual food sources are low.

“What we need is a daily, consistent effort to make sure that Bears don’t enter human areas,” says a Bear Expert.

Bears hibernate in the winter, lowering their body temperature and using stored fat for energy. They spend the hibernation period in their dens, which are typically built in the hollows of trees, between rocks, or even dug from the ground. And the floor is cushioned with dead leaves and branches. Females give birth to their cubs during this period, and spend at least two months inside the den.

With Japan’s population ageing and shrinking, some companies are turning to technology to manage Bears. Propped on four rods, the ‘Monster Wolf’ robot sold by a Company, Wolf Kamuy, emits growls, barks, and threats from a loudspeaker, triggered by a sensor. Priced at about 400,000 yen (about USD 2,550) and powered by solar energy, the gleaming-eyed beast has demonstrated some success in warding off Bears, though its sensor can be triggered by other animals (humans included?)

Beware of Bears!

Cyclone Fengal

This week, cyclonic storm Fengal a deadly tropical cyclone that originated from a tropical disturbance off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia on 14 November ripped through Southern India’s state of Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka and making landfall on 30 November. Going by the structured naming process, ‘Fengal’ was named by Saudi Arabia and means a ’strong wind’.

Cyclone Fengal brought significant flooding and damage on its path. It is the fourth cyclonic storm of the 2024 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. Many places in Tamil Nadu faced incessant rains for almost three whole days. Previously thought dead & buried Rivers suddenly sprang to life wearing a fresh muddy coat of paint.

Given last year’s disastrous flooding in Chennai, the State Govt armed itself to the teeth with boats & water pumps and the kind, and boldly proclaimed it can handle anything. That followed severe criticism of its abysmal handling of the previous years’ floods. Cyclone Fengal must have heard and this time it changed direction and wrecked havoc in Villupuram, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam – 800 acres of farmland sent underwater -Tiruvannamalai, Kallakurichi, Dharmapuri, Salem, in addition to sending the adjacent State of Puducherry under water. Historic, never before… were the words thrown around. Nevertheless, Chennai did suffer and for some it was a deja-vu with about 130mm of rain.

The Temple Town of Tiruvannamalai saw a never-before landslide kill at least 7 people. Sudden release of water to the tune 1.80 lakh cusecs from the nearby Sathanur Dam without adequate warning caused severe flooding and loss of cattle, downstream. The Government maintains it followed SOPs, but most residents complained that they did not receive adequate warnings. A resident of Puthur Chekkadi, which is home to over 500 houses, said that only a few people in the village received SMS alerts from the Tamil Nadu State Disaster Management Authority, that too on Monday morning, when the village was already flooded.

In the aftermath, the States are limping back to normalcy.

More flooding stories coming-up in the weeks ahead. Bear-up and stay above water with World Inthavaaram.