About: the world this week, 2 June 2024 to 8 June 2024: Israel and Lebanon; China on the Moon; General Elections – Mexico, South Africa, India.

Everywhere

Israel and Lebanon

While Israel continues its deadly foray into Rafah in the Gaza Strip and the hostage situation remains unmoving, tension is ramping up at the Israel-Lebanon border. This week, the Iran-backed militant organisation Hezbollah claimed responsibility for an attack in northern Israel that left multiple people injured. In another incident, in Lebanon, a gunman wearing what looked like ISIS insignia was arrested after firing shots at the United States (US) Embassy.

With no sign of progress in mediators’ efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza war, Israeli tanks and warplanes blasted central and southern areas overnight, killing over 20 Palestinians. Qatari and Egyptian mediators, backed by the US, have tried to halt hostilities, secure the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinians jailed in Israel, and get aid flowing into Gaza to ease a humanitarian crisis. But there are still no signs of a breakthrough.

Late in the week an Israeli air strike on a United Nations school, packed with displaced Palestinians, in central Gaza, has reportedly killed at least 35 people. Israel’s military said it had conducted a precise strike on a Hamas compound in the school and killed many of the 20 to 30 fighters it believed were inside. Of course, Hamas denied the claim and accused Israel of carrying out a horrific massacre.

China on the Moon

This Sunday China successfully landed on the ‘far side of the Moon’, the dark lunar hemisphere – an unexplored region where almost no one tries to go. The far side permanently faces away from Earth, is technically challenging to reach due to the distance, has a difficult terrain of giant, deep craters, and few flat surfaces to land on.

The uncrewed spacecraft Chang’e-6 touched down in the South Pole-Aitken Basin after completing a multi-stage landing process, announced the China National Space Administration (CNSA). Launched on 3rd May, the mission’s goal was to collect the world’s first rock and soil samples from the area and bring them back to Earth.

The landing was fraught with risks, owing to the difficulty in communicating with the spacecraft once it reaches the far side, requiring the use of a Satellite for the purpose.

China is the only country to have achieved the feat before, landing its Chang’e-4 in 2019. This is the second such mission to collect samples from the Moon. In 2020, Chang’e-5 brought back 1.7 kg of material from an area called Oceanus Procellarum, on the Moon’s near side.

After being launched from the Wenchang Space Launch Center, the Chang’e-6 spacecraft orbited the Moon waiting for the right time to land. The Lander then separated from the Orbiter to touch down on the Moon. During the descent, an autonomous visual obstacle avoidance system was used to automatically detect obstacles, with a visible light camera selecting a comparatively safe landing area based on the brightness and darkness of the lunar surface. The lander hovered about 100 metres above the safe landing area, and used a laser 3D scanner before it began a slow vertical descent. The operation was supported by the Queqiao-2 relay satellite.

After spending two days gathering materials from the Moon’s surface, the lunar probe successfully took off, this Tuesday, to begin its journey back to Earth, carrying the first samples ever collected from the region -in a metal vacuum container. Rocks and soil were gathered using a mechanical arm and a drill to collect about 2 kg of material from a gigantic crater in the South Pole.

Once the samples safely reach Earth, China would become the first country to bring back rock and soil samples from the far side of the Moon, which scientists say could be very different from rock formations on the near side. The CNSA announced the conclusion of taking samples, saying the craft had ‘withstood the test of high temperature on the far side of the Moon’ and was now beginning its return. After taking off, the module then entered a ‘pre-set orbit around the Moon’. The container is then transferred to a re-entry capsule set to return to Earth, landing in the deserts of Inner Mongolia around 25th June.

Elections in Mexico

Mexico has a new kind of President: a woman, a scientist, a noble-prize winner, a mayor, all rolled into one.

This Sunday, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo won a landslide victory to become Mexico’s first female president. She is a climate scientist and a former mayor of Mexico City. She won the presidency with between 58.3% and 60.7% of the vote which is the highest vote percentage in Mexico’s democratic history. Sheinbaum was mentored by outgoing leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whose popularity among the poor helped drive her triumph.

“For the first time in the 200 years of the republic, I will become the first woman president of Mexico,” Sheinbaum told supporters to loud cheers of “President, President”. She is also the first woman to win a general election in the region of United States, Mexico, or Canada.

Victory for Sheinbaum is a major step for Mexico, a country known for its macho culture and home to the world’s second-biggest Roman Catholic population, which for years pushed more traditional values and roles for women.

The Election was the most violent in Mexico’s modern history with 38 candidates murdered during the process. Sheinbaum has vowed to improve security and address massive security problems. Many analysts say organized crime groups expanded and deepened their influence during Lopez Obrador’s term. Sunday’s vote was also marred by the killing of two people at polling stations in Puebla state. More people have been killed – over 185,000 – during the mandate of Lopez Obrador than during any other administration in Mexico’s modern history, although the homicide rate has been inching down.

The ruling coalition was also on track for a possible two-thirds super majority in both houses of Congress, which would allow the coalition to pass constitutional reforms without opposition support.

Opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez conceded defeat after preliminary results showed her taking between 26.6% and 28.6% of the vote.

Claudia Sheinbaum was born in a secular Jewish family in Mexico City. Her paternal Ashkenazi grandparents emigrated from Lithuania to Mexico City in the 1920s. Her maternal Sephardic grandparents emigrated there from Sofia, Bulgaria, in the early 1940s to escape the Holocaust. She celebrates the major Jewish holidays at her grandparents’ homes. Both of her parents are scientists: her mother, Annie Pardo Cemo, is a biologist and professor emeritus at the Faculty of Sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and her father, Carlos Sheinbaum Yoselevitz, was a chemical engineer. Her brother, Julio, is a physicist.

A scientist by profession, Sheinbaum received her Doctor of Philosophy in energy engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico. She has authored over 100 articles and two books on energy, the environment, and sustainable development. Sheinbaum has a background in environmental policy, having served as Minister of the Environment for Mexico City and worked on the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which would go on to win a Nobel Prize.

Sheinbaum married Carlos Imaz in 1987 and have a daughter, born in 1988. They separated in 2016. In November 2023, Sheinbaum married Jesus Maria Tarriba Unger, a financial risk analyst for the Bank of Mexico.

Elections in South Africa

Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress (ANC) party has ruled South Africa, in an unbridled run, for three decades. However, this time the ANC faces a mammoth challenge as it needs to form a government with its political rivals: after suffering a seismic blow in last week’s elections, final results of which we declared this Sunday, by the Independent Electoral Commission. For the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, the once-dominant party will need to make a deal with other parties to form a coalition government.

The Elections were held for the National Assembly, which has 400 seats. 200 seats is required for an outright majority. The ANC won 159 seats with 40.18 % votes; the Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party, received the second-highest number of seats with 87 and 21.81% votes; the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won 58 seats with 14.58% votes, and the other parties won a total of 77 seats.

In the previous election in 2019, the ANC had won 230 seats with 57.5% of the votes.

A pivotal factor in this Election is former-President Jacob Zuma’s newly formed 5-month -old party, MK-named after ANC’s former armed wing, meaning spear of the nation. He capitalised on widespread discontent within ANC’s traditional voter base, finishing third. Zuma is a fierce critic of current ANC Leader and President Cyril Ramaphosa, ever since he was forced to resign in 2018. This election saw a dramatic comeback by Zuma.

The opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) led by John Steenhuisen is seen as a Party of White South Africans.

The Newly Elected National Assembly will have 14 days to hold its first sitting, when members will elect the President for the next 5 years by a simple majority.

Elections in India: The Dance of Democracy

The counting of votes in India’s General Elections to the Lok Sabha happened on 4 June 2024, and it was a stunning verdict, comprehensively defeating all predictions, be it the Exit Polls or the Opinion Polls. The predicted Landslide, for the ruling party, did not materialise.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which targeted a ‘wild majority’ on its own-about 370 seats-and dared an overwhelming majority of over 400 seats with its Alliance Partners in the 543 seated Parliament, was humbled. The slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ (this time 400 seats) saw it struggle to cross 300.

The BJP won 240 seats-32 short of a majority on its own and the pre-poll National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – led by the BJP -won a total of 293 seats well above the majority mark of 272, required to form the Government. The BJP depends heavily on two of its allies in the NDA, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a regional party in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, and the Janata Dal (United) – JDU- which rules the northern state of Bihar. Both of them have pledged support to the BJP along with others in the Alliance.

The opposition I.N.D.I.A Alliance (Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance) led by the Grand Old Party of India – the Congress- won 230 seats, more than forecasted. In fact, they consistently said their Alliance would get 295 seats and form the Government. The Congress alone won 99, almost double the 52 it won in 2019 – a surprise jump probably increasing the fortunes of the dynasty, which has had a steel-hand grip on the party, for decades.

The I.N.D.I.A Alliance met in New Delhi and after making some noises and desperate attempts to form a Government, gave-up, and decided to sit in the Opposition.

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi tendered his resignation on Wednesday to President Droupadi Murmu after a cabinet met and recommended the dissolution of the current Parliament. Later, he submitted letters of support from the NDA partners for the formation of a new Government. Modi and his new cabinet are scheduled to be sworn-in on 9th June, for a historic third term.

The BJP lost most of the ground in rural areas where land and labour reforms are still to be unlocked. In Uttar Pradesh (UP), the party lost nearly half its seats, down to 33 from its 2019 tally of 62, while in Maharashtra, India’s richest state that includes financial powerhouse Mumbai, it slumped to a dismal nine seats from its previous tally of 23. Modi’s own victory in his seat of Varanasi, located in UP and considered one of the holiest cities for Hindus, was subdued: his margin of victory down from nearly 5,00,000 votes at the last general election in 2019 to a little more than 1,50,000 this time.

The saving grace for the BJP was a superlative performance in, the State of Odisha where it swept the Lok Sabha Elections with 20 seats and also won a comfortable majority in the State Assembly Elections – held simultaneously. In a first time ever, it comes to power in Odisha ousting the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) Party headed by veteran Naveen Patnaik who has ruled for 5 consecutive terms, for over 24 years. The BJP won 78 seats in the 147 seated Assembly, while the BJD won only 52 seats.

In the State of Andhra Pradesh it aligned with Telugu Desam Party (a master stroke – in hindsight) and the Jana Sena, to win 3 seats, the TDP winning 16 seats, and the Jana Sena winning 2 seats. The BJP also won 8 seats in the Assembly, the Jana Sena Party won 21 seats, and the TDP 135 seats – out of 175 seats. The win also marks the remarkable return of three-time Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu who has styled himself as a development icon when he first became Chief Minister in the year 1995.

The reduced victory and reduced majority in parliament may not necessarily mean reform paralysis: necessary reforms are entirely feasible. Delivering sustained growth at an accelerated pace can only strengthen the government’s hand in the coming years.

Many world leaders have crawled across the finishing line in their third-term elections, and Modi is no exception. The BJP remains India’s single largest party by seats, and Modi has successfully secured a third term with his Allies matching the record of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister.

But the significant loss of seats for the BJP-more than 50-dims the allure of a third term, especially given the campaign targeting 400 coalition seats, making anything less seem like an under-achievement. The drop in seats could be due to joblessness, rural distress, growing inequality between the rich and the poor, among many other things. This 400 seats campaign has backfired, with such a massive majority probably raising fears of constitutional changes and that reservations to the poorest sections might be spiked. This time the ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ campaign brought back memories of the 2004 ‘overconfident’, India Shining campaign, which saw the BJP lose power to the Congress, despite doing great developmental work. And this time the work done was outstanding, many times over. But it ‘cut no ice’ with the voter. Lots to think about!

By gathering 25 opposition parties to fight one party – the BJP – the Congress increased its vote share by 1.55% (19.67% to 21.22%) and cut BJP’s vote share by 1.22% (37.7% to 36.58%). That brought BJP’s seats down from 303 to 240. Almost all 63 seats lost were from Maharashtra (23) & UP (30).

The BJP could not breach the southern States of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry were it did not win a single seat, but saw a significant increase in its vote share in Tamil Nadu. Kerala was a hint of times to come, with the BJP winning its first-ever seat from Thrissur. West Bengal continued to awfully tough: the expectations were sky-high and the BJP won only 12 of 42 seats.

Maybe it’s back to coalition politics in India. And the Indian voter is a tough customer. Ultimately, Indian democracy came out shining brightly in the dark background of all kinds of accusations, by the Opposition, on the Electronic Voting Machines and other processes.

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